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Tricia Mae Esguerra, Ryan Anthony Jacinto, Joshua Frankie Rayo
Adviser: Vena Pearl Bongolan, PhD
Collaborators: Dustin Edric Ricio, Pablo Manalastas
Abstract
The Philippines is uniquely very archipelagic, and, relatively, the Philippines experience a higher number of typhoons. Consequently, devastating storm surges occurred all over the country, though it is only through the recent Typhoon Yolanda that it is once more brought to common knowledge. No model nor software has been tailored specifically for the Philippine setting to measure storm surges that occur every time a typhoon is in the county. Thus, we are tailoring a model specifically for the Philippines and designing it to compute fast enough to be able to give real-time storm surge predictions around the country.
The model being used for this is the ADCIRC (ADvanced Multi-Dimensional CIRCulation) model coupled with SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model. The SWAN model employs an analog of the Gauss-Seidel sweeping method, while the ADCIRC model employs a continuous-Galerkin solution of the Generalized Wave Continuity Equation.
In order to not sacrifice accuracy for speed as we want it designed for real-time use, we employed the use of parallel computing so as to be able to more efficiently compute using the model. This was done through a 10-node parallel computer network through a Beowulf cluster built using 10 units of used AMD64 boxes (Intel x86_64 architecture).
Fig 1: Finite-element mesh of the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
This grid has an accuracy of 1 arc-minute or 1.865 km.
Fig 2: Predicted surge height in Tacloban City on November 07, 2013.
Max surge height of 5.5 meters.
Selected References
[1] J.C. Dietrich, et. al. Real-Time Forecasting and Visualization of Hurricane Waves and Storm Surge Using SWAN+ADCIRC and FigureGen, http://www.caseydietrich.com/2013/09/30/publication-2013-ima-figuregen/
[2] Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for HAIYAN-13 in China, Viet Nam, Philippines, Palau, http://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?name=HAIYAN
[3] Olaf Neussner. Assessment of Early Warning Efforts in Leyte for Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda
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